Lessons From The Past in a Shifting Access Landscape

Converging Architecture – Cellular, Wi-Fi & Satellite

As new forms of connectivity are deployed, it is valuable to reflect on the lessons learned from the evolution of mobile internet access. Currently, in Europe, this is the subject of an ongoing ‘fair share’ debate, where the value provided by traditional telco access is perceived to be diminishing relative to the influence of large content providers. End users expect to access the internet in a cost-effective and unrestricted manner—free from governmental or regulatory limitations—while continually demanding more content.. Effectively, this is a supply and demand problem with telecom as gatekeeper.

Driving Factors Behind Content and Capacity Growth:

• Increase in the number and variety of connected devices, with a 43% increase in IoT devices from 2022-2025
• Rising average webpage sizes—currently around 2.5 MB and growing YoY.

• Video consumption:
  • Instagram Reels now up to 3 minutes (average 15-30 seconds).
  • YouTube videos typically 2-3 minutes at moderate quality.

• Voice/video calls via WhatsApp: 70% of smartphone user base, averaging 38 minutes daily. In some measures WhatsApp – with 3Bn active users, is the largest telco in the world.
• Advertising: A significant part of the user’s “free” internet experience, driven by ad-based revenue models.
• Real-time communications: gaming, conferencing, voice and video calls; with video calls increasing to 5% of overall traffic

In the transition from 4G to 5G, average user consumption has tripled—from approximately 4 GB to between 20-30 GB per month and is expected to have a 20% CAGR increase until 2030. This increased demand puts intense pressure on telecom operators to maintain their value proposition and differentiation. Industry trends show a “race to the bottom”, with the average value per GB dropping to between $1-$2, and retail pricing becoming increasingly aggressive.

In our latest paper we discuss the lessons that can be learned from both Cellular Access Technology and Wi-Fi access changes – how they are salient and resonant with Satellite Access Integration for a converged experience. These lessons are both technical and from a business model perspective.